Recent polling doesn't look good for convicted felon Trump’s prospects with Independents, and even a lot of Republicans, who are now less likely to vote for him since his conviction in New York if these numbers hold up. I haven't seen any of the cross-tabs behind these numbers, so I'll take all of them with a grain of salt for now, but Trump doesn't need to lose a huge percentage of voters in a few swing states to cost himself the election in November.

From YouGov: Snap poll: 50% of Americans approve of Trump's hush-money conviction:

Half of Americans agree with a Manhattan jury's verdict that Donald Trump was guilty of 34 felony charges related to falsifying business records to cover up an alleged affair with an adult film actress. Another 30% disagree, and 19% of Americans aren't sure, in a YouGov snap poll conducted hours after the verdict Thursday.

Americans' immediate reactions are polarized along party lines, with 86% of Democrats but just 15% of Republicans believing the former president is guilty of felony charges. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think he's guilty as to think he's not.

Go read the rest of the article for the breakdown on the numbers, and also how many people believe he had a fair trial, and whether he committed any crimes.

Axios has this on The Morning Consult poll: Poll: 49% of Independents think Trump should drop out post-guilty verdict:

One of the first polls conducted since a New York Jury found Donald Trump guilty of falsifying business records find that a significant minority of Republicans and Independents want him to drop out and a majority of registered voters approve of the jury's decision.

Why it matters: The Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday offers some of the first clues about how voters are reacting to the unprecedented situation.

By the numbers: 54% of registered voters "strongly" or "somewhat" approve of the guilty verdict compared to 34% who "strongly or "somewhat" disapprove.

• 49% of Independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction.
• The polls found the race effectively tied nationally in a 1-on-1 with Biden at 45% and Trump at 44%.

And Reuters had this on his polling with Republicans: Exclusive: One in 10 Republicans less likely to vote for Trump after guilty verdict, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds:

Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Friday.

The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate's conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said they were more likely to support Trump, who has claimed the charges against him are politically motivated and has vowed to appeal.

The potential loss of a tenth of his party's voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans, since many of the latter would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction.
Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.

Don't believe the spin that Trump's convictions in New York were good for his campaign. It might light up his hard core base, but it's turning off Independents and people who weren't paying much attention to how he's been behaving, and it's turning off what's left of "moderate" Republicans if these early polls are to be believed.