New York Magazine's Benjamin Hart interviews Jonathan Tamari, national political correspondent for the Philadelphia Inquirer, about why the Oz-Fetterman race is so close:
Polls show that Dr. Oz and Fetterman are neck and neck going into the home stretch of this campaign, with Oz having made up quite a bit of ground over the last few weeks. Do you sense that either one of them has a distinct advantage with five days to go?
No, it feels like a true toss-up, like a jump ball that could totally go either way. And this is really where I think most people expected it to be in the end. Pennsylvania has had really close Senate elections historically, except maybe ones involving Bob Casey, who’s a unique case because of his family’s legacy in the state. The sitting Republican, Pat Toomey, won both of his elections by one to two percentage points, and that’s kind of how these things go here.
Fetterman did have a substantial lead for a few months as he relentlessly attacked Oz for being an out-of-stater, among other things. Does that just speak more to Oz’s inability at the beginning to win over the voters he needed, or Fetterman’s unique strength?
I think that was a reflection of a really brutal Republican primary, where there were three candidates who drew significant levels of support from Republicans. And remember: Oz was hammered throughout that primary for not being a true conservative, because he has said a lot of things in the past that were moderate on issues like abortion and guns and fracking. So there were a lot of Republicans who were just skeptical of him from the start. He won somewhere around a third of the vote in the Republican primaries. Two out of every three Republicans voted for somebody else, let alone independents and Democrats. It took him a long time to consolidate support, both to get conservatives to believe that he was one of them, and to try to turn some people against Fetterman, who had established a long-standing brand in Pennsylvania.
Have people warmed to Oz, or is it more like they realized they’ll pull the lever for the Republican no matter what?
I think the campaign has done a good job of getting Republicans to vote for him, but not necessarily because they love Oz. His negative ratings in polls are still terrible. But what they’ve done is launched all these attacks on Fetterman over crime. Some people say that’s to get suburban swing voters who are concerned about crime spilling from Philadelphia into the suburbs. But other folks say this was a way to make Fetterman unacceptable to conservative voters by painting Fetterman as a guy who they’d hate, who would release criminals back into the state. And I think they’ve done an effective job of that. The question is, have they won over enough swing voters as well? And I just don’t know the answer to that.
I'm not sure when this interview took place, but my feeling is that Fetterman will pick up momentum and it won't be quite as tight as everyone thinks. There's a new Marist poll (one of the better polls) out Friday that confirms my hunch:
A new Marist poll in Pennsylvania finds John Fetterman (D) leads Mehmet Oz (R), 51% to 45% among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this month’s election.
Among registered voters, Fetterman is ahead of Oz, 50% to 44%. https://t.co/7gVi0LsdSw— Todd Kennedy (@pragpro) November 4, 2022
In Arizona, Marist now gives Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs a slight lead. We just may duck the Kari Lake bullet if this holds.
In Georgia, the Warnock-Walker race is dead even, and will almost certainly end up in a runoff. Brian Kemp still leads Stacey Abrams by 8 points among definite voters.
And in Nevada, Jon Ralston makes his predictions:
OPINION: Crystal ball says Cortez Masto hangs on, Sisolak doesn’t and Dems retain two of three House seats. via @RalstonReports.https://t.co/6MOxapnih4 pic.twitter.com/i9FZ9UMeQl
— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 7, 2022
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You already know the drill: IGNORE the polls, because pollsters don't know what they're doing. Get out and vote!
