The large betting prediction markets do not allow for election bets from Americans, but this has not stopped some poll aggregators from including the numbers as if they were quasi-polls. They're not. Simply fever dreams of crypto bros online for what they want to happen, not necessarily what will happen based on people who actually matter, the voters.
They discussed this weird phenomenon on Bill Maher's Real Time. Mark Cuban also mentioned that he's an investor in Polymarket.
Source: Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non-Americans or a non-American, according to a source familiar with the matter on Friday.
Opinion polls indicate a likely close match between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the vote on Nov. 5. However, the odds have diverged on Polymarket, with Trump pulling strongly ahead at a 60% chance of winning versus Harris on 40%.
The trade was driven by four accounts that placed more than $30 million worth of bets, according to the source, confirming an earlier story in the Wall Street Journal.
Political pundits and social media users have questioned whether specific high-profile Americans could be behind the moves.
But Polymarket does not allow Americans to make U.S. election bets on the exchange, and the source confirmed that Polymarket's users are international. The source said the company certifies all of its large traders to ensure they are not logging in via VPNs to obscure which country they are in.
