Will The Odds Continue To Be In Biden's Favor?

By Susie Madrak — July 18, 2024

Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls. Tell us more!

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

[...] It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.

And yet, this morning, it seems inevitable that Biden will be forced out. Is it his age? The current polls don't reflect it. Which leads me to believe it's not the polling, it's the policies. The things he's achieved for ordinary working people are remarkable, but I suspect what is really behind the media assault is the anti-monopoly push.

After all, media companies are behemoths these days.

Lots of polls out there right now saying Trump getting “shot”makes him a winner, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Make sure you understand polls before you trust polls. pic.twitter.com/0Y7cTGdlkv

— PoliticsGirl (@IAmPoliticsGirl) July 17, 2024

I have outlined in detail why I believe Biden and the Democrats are headed for a historic win in November, using various data points and historical data, while many still rely on unscientific polls that lack methodological transparency. I will write a thread later.

— Christopher Bouzy (spoutible.com/cbouzy) (@cbouzy) July 17, 2024

So we've gotten a bunch of polls fielded after Sat. Most show little movement, and a close, competitive election. It's a remarkably stable race.

On @FiveThirtyEight Biden's 0.5 higher today than he was on July 5th and over 270 in the forecast. https://t.co/vviurCpqS2

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) July 17, 2024

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