AZ, NV Dem Senators Appear To Be On Track To Win Reelection

By Susie Madrak — November 11, 2022

Via the New York Times, Sen. Mark Kelly and Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto are both hanging on. Final results should be in tonight:

Democrat Mark Kelly won the latest batch of Maricopa County mail ballots by 13 points, expanding his statewide lead over Republican Blake Masters to nearly 6 percentage points. Masters’s chances hinge on winning an overwhelming margin among voters who dropped off their mail ballots on Election Day.

Catherine Cortez-Masto won the latest batch of mail ballots in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, by a 61 to 34 percent margin. It’s a pace that would allow Cortez-Masto to take the lead, if she keeps it up among the remaining mail ballots.

Things are tight -- as of early this morning, Laxalt was ahead of Cortez-Masto by 9000 votes. The remaining ballots in Clark County are expected to be heavily Democratic.

Same with Mark Kelly, whose margins are bigger than Cortez-Castro. Expect final results tonight. (Dave Wasserman has called the race for Kelly.)

I've seen enough: Sen. Mark Kelly (D) wins reelection in #AZSEN, defeating Blake Masters (R).

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 11, 2022

In the Arizona governor's race, Katie Hobbs is ahead of the femme fascist Kari Lake by about 30,000 votes -- but that can change, depending on the Clark County ballots.

Democrat Adrian Fontes's lead in the secretary of state race continues to grow against whack job election denier Mark Finchem.

We have now projected all three Democratic incumbents to win re-election to the House.

All three were GOP targets, and a ton of money was spent here to defeat them. (I thought they would defeat Lee.)

This is also vindication of a Dem redistricting plan criticized near and far. https://t.co/y6yigNz9c6

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 11, 2022

New Huge Batch of Mail Ballots in Clark County, Nevada

11/10/2022
Added 35,183
Dem 14,756 (41.9%) +6,068
Rep 8,688 (24.7%)
Other 11,739 (33.4%)@RalstonReports

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 11, 2022

This also means I was correct about the total of 76k yesterday. So we have about 61k that have yet to be announced what their count is. This includes

Total left: 61k
Already reported by partisanship: 50k ~+12.5k margin for Cortez Masto
~4k EDay drop-offs
~7k provisionals pic.twitter.com/apGLwkIAfm

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 11, 2022

The @CookPolitical House Vote Tracker has the Republican raw vote lead down to 5.7 points (and it'll decline significantly further) and House control still uncertain. https://t.co/YOAzUtaCVx pic.twitter.com/ljhrv4fRe8

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 11, 2022

And I know no one will be happy about this, but:

Now that #CO03 Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) has expanded her lead over Adam Frisch (D) to 1,136 votes with additional ballots counted in blue-leaning Pueblo County, much tougher to see her losing.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 11, 2022

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