Republicans got one more reason to be nervous about November on Tuesday night as Democrats defied expectations by holding a New York swing seat in a special election. Although the race was to replace Democrat Antonio Delgado following his move from Congress to lieutenant governor, the district only narrowly went for President Joe Biden, and Republican nominee Marc Molinaro actually won that district in his losing run for governor in 2018. Molinaro led in the polls and was expected to win, but Democrats added to a string of expectation-exceeding results in special elections since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturned Roe v. Wade.

These results join the resounding vote for abortion rights in Kansas and new voter registration numbers in several battleground states as reasons for Republicans to be nervous. Suddenly women are out-registering men by substantial margins in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and young people are making up a much larger proportion of new registrations than usual. The percentage of voters saying abortion will be important in their vote in November has risen by 13 percentage points since March to a solid 56% majority.

Republicans spent most of the year confidently expecting a red wave come November, and while gerrymandering in some states will give them an advantage in taking the House, things are not looking nearly as wavelike as projected.

The panic was palpable over at Fox News:

While Republicans desperately seek a message to make stick for November, with gas prices—which were supposed to be their home-run issue—steadily dropping, Democrats are hammering the loss of abortion rights. Rep.-elect Pat Ryan won New York’s 19th District with a campaign that focused strongly on abortion even though abortion rights are not at risk in New York.

In states where abortion rights are at risk, Democrats have massively outspent Republicans on ads on the issue, highlighting statements like “you make it illegal and you punish the doctors,” from Arizona Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters, or Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon calling a 14-year-old raped by her uncle a “perfect example” for her opposition to exceptions for rape or incest.

Again, gerrymandering is a major challenge for Democrats in holding the House. But with Ryan having outperformed Biden’s 2020 margin, Democrats have much more reason for optimism than just a few months ago. And that sudden aura of fear coming from Republicans is oh so sweet.

Republished with permission from Daily Kos.