A GOP establishment-type candidate is on the rise in New Hampshire, but it's not the one you might be thinking about. With all the effort Joe McQuaid used to try and turn Gov. Chris Christie into the Republican establishment's candidate, it's Ohio Governor John Kasich that has risen to second place in a new ARF poll.

Former reality-television star Donald Trump remains the Republican frontrunner in New Hampshire, followed by a surging Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) in second place, according to an American Research Group poll released Tuesday.

The ARG poll showed Trump in the lead with 27 percent, followed by Kasich at 20 percent. This represents a significant boost for Kasich, who was trailing Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 13-14 percent in ARG’s December poll and tied with him in the same survey earlier this month at 14 percent. Rubio lost ground as Kasich gained in the poll, falling from 14 percent to 10 percent between ARG's two January surveys.

Gov. Christie needs New Hampshire to continue to be at least a periphery candidate, but if Kasich beats him there, then he's toast.